Grumblings and Musings…Business Specific Geek Speak
Written by Tim ONeill on May 20, 2008 – 7:13 pm -Ok check it out. As a business geek I am usually fairly aware of the pulse of the market. As I have mentioned before I am a research-a-holic. So when I continuously hear the talking heads in the financial press screaming chicken little I have to laugh. I mean check out all the “bad stuff” going on in the 1980’s (this chart and information is from Oppenheimer Funds “Pulse of the Market” Brochure), Reagan Shot, Us becomes a debtor nation, Challenger disaster, Insider Trading Scandal, S&L bail-out, yada yada…Black Monday. The market dropped 200 points in a single day, oh my. I do remember because I was a kid then, just out of the military from a combat camera group, I was trying to sell mutual funds to earn my way through art school. I was a licensed rep. Yea, that was fun. Oh by the way with the S&L bailout in the late 80’s, over 600 US institutions bit it. But ok lets look at the 1990’s. Gulf war, Riot’s, Orange County Default, OKlahoma city bombing, Government shutdown, Asian Economic crisis, Impeachment trial, El Nino, Russian Bond Default. Right. Look at the market. Still ups and downs but a continual climb. Alright here we are in this decade we have the dot-com crash, war in Iraq, 9-11, oil prices over 130.00 a barrel. the point is we have serious volatility…almost always. There is a always something. The press would have us believe we are going down the tubes. You know to date only 3 US Banks have closed because of the sub-prime fiasco? You see that little blip with the circle around it on the chart? That is Black Monday. In retrospect it is barely visable. I mean we had a 200 point drop just this week… And a rise of equal or more. Sure I get it, the market was only what 800 back then so it was a higher percentage drop than the 200 today by a long shot. I know. it just proves my point even further. The market will continue to grow just as it has. If you would have put 10,000 in the market (based on S&P) in 1980 it would be over 277,000 as of march 08. Ok, so we hear recession screamed from the rooftops. Really, by definition recession is 2 consecutive quarters where the GNP is down by 25 basis points (.25%). We have not even had one quarter down yet let alone two. So talking heads….shush. I am gonna keep making and selling art.
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